Empowered Worldviews: Assessing the persistence of psychosocial intervention effects in Zambia

Evidence on the persistence of psychosocial outcomes of interventions over the medium and long term, and in the face of shocks and stressors, is limited. We examined the extent to which empowerment associated with a psychosocial, faith-based approach, Empowered Worldview (EWV) persisted 3–5 years post-delivery of the intervention in Zambia among smallholder farmers. The EWV intervention in Zambia was delivered as part of THRIVE, an integrated livelihoods programme. We followed a previous study to disaggregate individual-level empowerment associated with EWV into three domains: internal (which relates to ‘power within’), localised (typically participation and access), and structural (e.g. institutional, environmental, and social structures).

To explore the persistence of EWV effects on empowerment, we used mixed methods and longitudinal data collected in 2020 and 2023, which were the midline and endline points of the THRIVE programme. Empirically, we used descriptive and regression analysis to compare internal and localised empowerment levels between the survey rounds (2020 and 2023) across study groups – including groups that received EWV before and after 2020 – and to the control group. We also re-interviewed a subset of EWV participants interviewed in 2020 to understand how empowerment has changed at the individual level over time.

Life history diagram for Beatrice.

The results show levels of internal empowerment associated with the EWV intervention persisted between the midline and endline surveys, especially when combined with THRIVE livelihood interventions. At the midline, 80.0 per cent of THRIVE with EWV participants were empowered, compared to 82.3 per cent at the endline. In contrast, 72.6 per cent and 73.07 per cent of the control sample participants were empowered at the midline and the endline, respectively. Quantitative results further show that localised empowerment significantly improved between survey rounds among participants who received EWV training and is positively associated with internal empowerment, consistent with literature that suggests localised enablers (supporting social environments) are crucial to sustaining internal empowerment. The qualitative data shows that persistent internal and localised empowerment was observed mostly among households in the non-poor wellbeing category, suggesting that additional interventions are needed to reach the poorest participants. Results also show internal and localised empowerment are positively associated with indicators of household resilience. We conclude the paper with recommendations for programming.

Life history diagram for Edward

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Zambia Poverty Dynamics Research

Front page of policy brief

The policy agenda proposed here builds on good measures already taken by the Government of Zambia in education, social protection, debt relief and macroeconomic management, and addresses the challenges that remain in creating a more prosperous and equal Zambia.

The rate of poverty reduction slowed in Zambia during the 2010s, and especially with the 2019 drought and policy responses to the pandemic. A high level of rural chronic poverty is associated with farming and other natural resource-based occupations, suggesting that natural resource management requires significant policy attention. Surprisingly, chronic poverty is highest in eastern and southern Zambia, despite the maize- and livestock-based economics in those regions.

In the context of continuing climate change, risks to natural resource-based occupations are increasing rapidly, which keeps people poor. Sustained escapes from poverty have not exceeded downward mobility into poverty. Urbanised provinces have typically done better than rural ones in reducing extreme poverty and deprivation. 

Zambia’s debt servicing obligations and low economic growth have meant that public expenditure is constrained, though a little less in 2023 than in 2022 when reduced debt servicing allowed increased allocations to education and social protection budgets among others. Significantly greater public expenditure will be needed to recapture a higher rate of poverty reduction. However, it is also important that expenditure goes to items that will reach and benefit poor and vulnerable people. 

This policy brief recommends a series measures, several of which are already underway, and within a sound macroeconomic management framework that has been put in place.

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COVID-19 Life History Infographics: Zambia

Impacts of the Government of Zambia’s Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic on Poverty

COVID-19 tested the social welfare system that successive governments have been building in Zambia over the last two decades. Zambia had one of the highest poverty rates in the world going into the COVID-19 pandemic as well as overlapping vulnerabilities related to climate change, macroeconomic instability, and high external debt. These and other challenges exposed many people living above the poverty line to impoverishment and pushed households living in poverty further towards destitution.

Civil Society for Poverty Reduction (CSPR), the Chronic Poverty Advisory Network (CPAN), and the Institute of Social and Economic Research (INESOR) have been monitoring the impacts of the pandemic on people living in or near poverty in Zambia since early 2021 in three districts – Lusaka, Kabwe and Chipata - about the reach and impact of these policies. This policy brief reviews the Government of Zambia’s key policies to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on people living in or near poverty and summarises insights from people affected by these policies about what they have achieved and how they can be improved.

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Literature Review: Poverty Dynamics and Drivers in Zambia (1964-2019)

The Zambian Chronic poverty study, for which this literature review has been conducted, investigates and interrogates chronic poverty dynamics in Zambia. Although chronic poverty has existed for a long time, no specific study of this magnitude and scope has been conducted to provide a comprehensive understanding of chronic poverty dynamics in the country. The study has two objectives as follows:

• The study seeks to establish a dynamic understanding of the chronically poor in the post-2010 period in Zambia, to draw conclusions about who is being left behind, why and what can be done about it.

• The second objective is to establish a qualitative baseline for future monitoring work, similar to the WIDE project in Ethiopia.

The key research questions include:

• Why has extreme poverty (and hunger) remained at such a high level and so widespread especially in rural areas, despite economic growth, political stability, and a reasonable human development record?

• To what extent is this accounted for by chronic poverty or by mobility around the poverty line or different combinations of these in different places?

• What are the main sources of vulnerability, and how do these combine to impoverish or allow only temporary escapes from poverty where this is the case?

• Why are women headed households typically poorer than men-headed households? And what is the contribution of gender and other social relationships to sustained escapes/chronic poverty/impoverishment?

• Urban poverty is held to have declined faster than rural. Why is this? Is urban poverty and wellbeing correctly estimated? What results do alternative measures of urban poverty give?

• How are policies and major programmes contributing to poverty dynamics?

This literature demonstrates that, despite a favourable economy at Independence and some years afterwards, Zambia’s poverty levels have ranked among the highest in the world. Over the past five decades, Zambia has undergone several somewhat distinct policy regimes, each with varied implications on poverty. This review is divided into two sections. The first section analyses the performance of the Zambian economy over five decades, from 1964 to 2016, to reflect on policies and strategies that drove, sustained and/or reduced poverty levels and to place Zambia’s economic growth, structural changes and declines in a historical and socio-economic policy perspectives. The second section provides a conceptual and methodological overview, a detailed analysis of the historical and present poverty conditions and trends including ongoing and future poverty reduction strategies and interventions.

Authors: Phillimon Ndubani, Bwalya Chiti, Tamara Billima, Marja Hineflaar, Virginia Bond

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A Qualitative Understanding of Poverty Dynamics in Zambia

This qualitative study, carried out from 2019 to 2020, describes poverty trajectories in Zambia, with a strong focus on the post-2010 period and on sustainable escape from poverty. There is limited qualitative research in Zambia on assessment of poverty dynamics that encompasses both drivers that support sustainable escapes from poverty and drivers of poverty descent. The importance of understanding these poverty dynamics, their geographical distribution and trends over time, as well as how they respond to policies and programmes, cannot be overemphasized. 

Under the leadership of Chronic Poverty Advisory Network (CPAN), and with funding from DFID, a research partnership between Zambart, LSHTM (UK), INESOR and CPAN conducted this qualitative component that was part of a broader study of Zambia Poverty Dynamics. The other broader study components included the analysis of two sets of survey data, namely the Rural Agricultural Livelihoods panel survey 2012-2015-2019 and the Living Conditions and Monitoring Survey 2010 & 2015. This was carried out by IAPRI (RALS) and INESOR (INESOR) respectively. Two other components provided modelling forecasting of poverty up to 2060, led by the University of Denver, and a political economy analysis, led by SAIPAR.  The mixed methods findings across all components are presented in a national report (see Shepherd and Bond et al., 2021). This report focuses on the qualitative component.

Authors: Virginia Bond, Joseph Simbaya, Chiti Bwalya, Lucia da Corta, Arthur M Moonga, Monde Mwamba, Lwiindi Gwanu, Marta Eichsteller, Phillimon Ndubani

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Poverty Dynamics in Zambia

Zambia remains a high-poverty country despite having attained middle-income status in 2011. According to projections, the country’s high levels of poverty will persist through to the middle of this century unless significant new policies and programmes can be developed. This report outlines the findings of a quantitative and qualitative analysis of poverty dynamics – defined as being stuck in poverty, escaping poverty either temporarily or in a sustained way, or becoming poor – and draws out policy implications.

Structural financial distress is manifested in the high levels of severe/food poverty, chronic poverty and impoverishment in rural areas witnessed by this study, which are strongly linked to environmental sustainability issues (deteriorating fish stocks, soil fertility, drought and floods) and disaster risk. There are many further effects: inability to cope with health shocks over time, early marriage, alcoholism, divorce, and a high number of chronically poor women-headed households. Panel data reveals relatively less poverty in urban areas compared to rural areas, but high levels of inequality within urban areas. Those in poorer urban townships endure high rents and the threat of eviction, precarious labour incomes and exploitation marked by long periods of unemployment. Inflation in the costs of living, together with the real costs of educating children, are not met by rising employment and incomes.

Sustained escapes are all too rare – where they occur, they are characterised by diversification within farming or into nonfarm enterprises, and by transitions from rural to urban residence. However, rural-urban migration as a pathway out of poverty is limited in Zambia compared to many other countries, indicating a need to spread the ‘inclusive urban development’ now being pioneered in Lusaka to other cities and towns across the country, in the hope that urban areas become more migrant-friendly. Impoverishment and temporary escapes from poverty are much more common in rural areas. A much greater emphasis in policy development is needed to prevent people falling (back) into poverty as well as to tackle the widespread rural chronic poverty. In urban areas, there is an urgent need to invest in the country’s power generation and electricity distribution system to avoid a repetition of the employment crisis generated by the 2019 drought and persistent load shedding. Load shedding has significant impacts on people’s livelihoods, especially traders, saloon and barber shop owners, welders and other users of electricity. Increasing the rate of rural electrification and access for poorer households will also help build resilience through investments in irrigation and nonfarm enterprises.

The overall context is one of macroeconomic vulnerability and constraints on public action. Zambia is a Least Developed Country (LDC) that is mineral-dependent, debt-distressed and with a revenue deficit. It also suffers from long-term urban–rural, inter-provincial and gender inequalities and highly contested politics characterised by weak policy development and implementation. With the advent of a new government, policies now need to tackle the causes of adverse poverty dynamics, and to introduce innovations into the policy framework – this research has suggestions on what they should be. Implementation problems are widespread, with examples including regularly delayed subsidised fertiliser distribution (despite early requests for down payments from beneficiaries), inadequate financing of social cash transfers and associated corruption scandals, and inadequate financing of the Food Security Pack programme. These contextual factors significantly constrain the effectiveness of state action on poverty reduction.

Zambians have faced a recent period of sharp shocks to the incomes of the poor (from 2017 to end-2019) as well as a decade (2011 to present) of systemic stressors driving a slower decline in income, savings and assets which increased the vulnerability to the recent shocks faced by households and those brought on by COVID-19 in 2020–21. The management of the 2019 drought is being evaluated, but the official response appears to have left much to be desired. Coupled with concerns about COVID-19 donor funding, questions are being raised about the politicisation of relief.

In this context, it is remarkable that some people can still escape poverty and remain out of it. The qualitative research revealed how these ‘sustained escapers’ demonstrate the benefits of education (including educated children), a stable marriage, women’s empowerment, diverse livelihoods, hard work, compassionate employer-labour relationships and careful management of health, partners, recreational pursuits and assets. In the medium term, getting agriculture policy right, combined with supporting diversification and inclusive urbanisation and supported by significant increases in public expenditure on health and education, will go a long way towards supporting those escapes and supporting more people to escape in the first place. With its 8th National Development Plan in process and a new government, Zambia has a major opportunity to tackle its persistently high poverty levels.

Authors: Andrew Shepherd, Virginia Bond, Chiti Bwalya, Richard Bwalya, Antony Chapoto, Lucia da Corta, Vidya Diwakar, Marta Eichsteller, Lwiindi Gwanu, Mary Lubungu, Monde Mwamba, Phillimon Ndubani, Joseph Simbaya and Mitelo Subakanya

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Rural poverty dynamics in Zambia: 2012-2019

Rural poverty rates in Zambia have stood above 75% since 1991, according to national poverty lines. Furthermore, Figure 1 shows that 76.6% of the rural population is living in poverty compared to 23.4% of the urban population, based on the national poverty line of 214 Zambian kwacha (ZMW) per adult equivalent per month. However, these rates hide underlying poverty dynamics in these areas. CPAN research across a range of developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa reveals that there are considerable movements of households into and out of poverty over time. Understanding the drivers of these poverty dynamics is therefore critical in efforts to speed up poverty reduction, as different poverty trajectories require (at least some) different policy responses. A more nuanced understanding of the poverty profile and dynamics in Zambia can thus contribute to more effective policy and programming efforts towards eradicating poverty.

This study examines the factors that support sustained escapes from poverty in rural Zambia, where there are stubbornly high poverty rates, and how to prevent impoverishment and tackle chronic poverty. For this dynamic analysis of poverty, the study uses the Rural Agricultural Livelihoods Survey (RALS) to examine the factors associated with sustained escapes, transitory escapes, impoverishment and chronic poverty. Understanding the factors driving these movements can be used by policy-makers in making progress towards achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 1 by developing new and strengthening existing policies and programmes to eradicate poverty.

Authors: Vidya Diwakar, Mitelo Subakanya, Mary Lubungu, and Antony Chapoto

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Assessing the drivers of poverty in Zambia: evidence from 2010 and 2015

Poverty has remained high and also predominantly a rural phenomenon in Zambia, despite various interventions and policies over the years. As of 2015, estimates put rural poverty at 73.6%, compared to urban levels of 23.4% (CSO and World Bank, n.d.). Understanding and responding to the drivers of rural and urban poverty can help contribute to poverty reduction. The objective of this paper is to investigate these drivers of poverty in Zambia. It responds to the question: Why has extreme poverty remained at such a high level and so widespread? To answer this question, the analysis employs the 2010 and 2015 rounds of the Zambia Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) to identify correlates of poverty in rural and urban areas, by province and by expenditure quintile. It also explores the extent to which continued high levels of poverty may be accounted for by varied poverty dynamics around the poverty line.

The analysis reveals that there continue to be provinces in Zambia with high poverty in 2015, much of which is chronic in nature. Relatively limited escapes from poverty and more variable provincial-level impoverishment suggests a context in which resilience is weak. Even so, there are positive factors that offer some protection against poverty and improve welfare across the wealth distribution – in particular, a secondary education or higher, access to electricity, non-farm enterprises and owning livestock. A policy focus on these areas and the relevant intersections (for example, the combination of a secondary education or higher and a non-farm enterprise) would benefit Zambians on the road to zero poverty.

Authors: Vidya Diwakar and Richard Bwalya

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The future of Zambian poverty to 2060: assessing national and sub-national trends across scenarios

Poverty in Zambia is extensive and a persistent problem. Zambia’s recent period of positive macroeconomic performance did not lead to commensurate improvements for the poorest Zambians. Over half of all Zambians live below the national poverty line and about 1 in 3 live on less than $1.00 per day. Long-term trends in development in Zambia suggest that poverty could remain a challenge for many years to come.

This report utilizes the 2015 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) to understand the current state of poverty in Zambia, and examines the potential long-term future of poverty in Zambia using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system to project poverty in Zambia at national and provincial levels. In this effort it also projects poverty across scenarios that reflect policy choices and possible patterns of development in Zambia.

Authors: Mickey Rafa, Singumbe Muyeba, Jonathan Moyer, and Taylor Hanna

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The role of behaviour-change programming on mindsets and livelihoods

The psychosocial dimensions of poverty have long been recognised, but psychosocial factors are rarely included in development frameworks as diagnostics or as interventions to address poverty. Religion and/or faith is also broadly recognized as having the potential to affect mindsets and constraints to economic wellbeing, but faith dimensions are rarely included in poverty interventions. This is consistent with gaps in the wider literature on faith in development and in empirical evidence on faith in development programming.  A review of the literature indicates that a lack of established faith and economic development frameworks might contribute to this evidence gap. Faith and psychological attributes are also difficult to measure, likely contributing to the gap in evidence-based faith-oriented models.

CPAN partnered with World Vision, a Christian humanitarian organization, to conduct an evaluation of the efficacy of its faith-based approach called Empowered Worldview (EWV). The EWV approach seeks to address ‘dependency mindsets and promote empowerment among smallholder farmers living in poverty’. We conducted a literature review to inform a conceptual framework of the potential pathways of change and outcome measures of an EWV intervention in livelihoods improvement programming. We also empirically tested the framework in Zambia on World Vision’s THRIVE programme (Transforming Household Resilience in Vulnerable Environments). THRIVE is an integrated livelihoods programme that includes EWV as a core approach—in addition to savings for transformation, natural resource management, farming as a Business, disaster risk reduction and microfinance interventions.  

Three hypotheses tested in the study:

1. Households trained in EWV are more likely to have positive mindsets (are empowered) than households not trained in EWV with regards to hope, identity, self-esteem and aspirations of economic/social well-being.

2. EWV interventions positively influence a household’s response to livelihood options, agency, and valuable social relationships leading to economic empowerment.

3. EWV interventions have a positive, statistically significant effect on livelihoods (THRIVE) results, including subjective well-being, income change, resilience, and child well-being.

Authors: Amanda Lenhardt, Vidya Diwakar, Joseph Simbaya, Emmanuel Tumusiime

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This project has been commissioned and is funded by World Vision.