“We will die in poverty before dying by COVID”: Young adults and multilayered crises in Afghanistan

Afghanistan experienced an extraordinary situation in 2021 that presents a complex example of how an intensified level of conflict and the global COVID-19 pandemic of added to an increasing prevalence of drought due to climate change has been affecting people’s livelihoods from different angles. In pre-August 2021, the country experienced record-level violence across the provinces. This was followed by the gradual fall of districts, provinces and finally the capital Kabul into the hands of the current de facto authorities, the Taliban.

Meanwhile, like any other part of the world, Afghanistan also experienced the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, which hindered people’s access to jobs, health care and different sources of revenue. Alongside this, the second-worst drought in 4 years (IFRC, 2021) has widely affected the livelihoods of the majority of people who rely on agriculture and livestock as the sole source of income.

There has been limited research into how these situations have combined to affect livelihoods and wellbeing in Afghanistan. This article attempts to advance understanding of this issue and promote research that investigates overlapped crises.

Read the full synthesis paper here.

Vulnerability in Afghanistan before and during the shift in power

Afghanistan is experiencing contemporaneous crises including drought, floods, COVID-19, insecurity, political and economic crises, and displacement, all of which pose serious risks. This layering of crises heightens the probability of welfare loss, which has worsened since the transition of power, and the subsequent suspension of development aid. Though there has been an emergency response from the international community, the scale of macro-level challenges is considerable, and in turn may also compound vulnerabilities at the micro level for population subgroups, such as people in or near poverty, as well as certain groups like women and girls, persons with disabilities, and displaced populations. Though poverty is not synonymous with vulnerability, it is one of the factors that can heighten vulnerability. This brings up the question that if a large share or majority of the population is vulnerable, what is the value in identifying vulnerable groups? Are there degrees of vulnerability, or intersections of contexts and characteristics that may limit resilience capacities and amplify vulnerability that need to be considered?

This paper identifies vulnerable groups in Afghanistan and examines how they can be supported through humanitarian and wider assistance provided by the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO). It synthesises a range of quantitative and qualitative data sources from 2019 to 2022, spanning multiple household and settlement survey datasets and qualitative in-depth interviews with households and key informants to understand risks and resilience factors that could contribute to vulnerability reduction. This is complemented with a rapid literature review of vulnerability in Afghanistan based on journal articles and grey literature primarily over the last decade to offer a longer-term perspective. The study was commissioned by the FCDO’s South Asia Research Hub to better understand who is most vulnerable in Afghanistan and how can they be supported through humanitarian and wider assistance provided by FCDO, especially since the August 2021 shift in power.

Authors: Vidya Diwakar, Ihsanullah Ghafoori, and Orzala Nemat

The full paper can be downloaded here.

Welfare of Young Adults amid COVID-19, Conflict, and Disasters: Evidence from Afghanistan

Afghanistan has experienced decades of conflict-related insecurity and disasters, a situation that has been exacerbated by the onset of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This paper employs the Income, Expenditure, and Labour Force Survey (IE&LFS) 2019-20 to quantitatively analyse poverty and welfare loss in Afghanistan. This analysis hence covers the period before August 2021, offering an important baseline to examine deteriorating situations in subsequent years. It finds that rates of poverty and welfare loss increased during the onset of the pandemic, especially among poor households, potentially reflecting new impoverishment as well as destitution processes. Though these rates were comparable across age groups, in absolute terms, they represent approximately 4.7 million young adults living in poverty in 2019-20. Youth-headed households were disadvantaged in terms of a lower asset base. Though they had more years of schooling, and higher rates of salaried employment and migration that both helped protect against poverty, during COVID-19 they were more likely to record a temporary layoff, reflecting the precariousness of youth employment.

Disasters, insecurity, and a range of negative shocks and stressors alongside COVID-19 contributed to welfare loss, and, in some situations, were amplified during the pandemic. Many households reduced expenditures and the quality or quantity of food in response to these shocks, particularly during COVID-19. Food insecurity was a related consequence, heightened during the pandemic, especially among youth-headed households. Other responses common during COVID-19 included an increase in work-related strategies, potentially substituting a decline in social capital within the community. Though the rate of economic activities among women in general was strikingly low, there was a slight increase in employment during COVID-19 among women in poor households, and among women in households experiencing disasters or in insecure areas amid COVID-19. This may point to a potential narrowing of the gender differential in employment in crisis contexts, though this itself is a sign of distress where women in poverty may have no recourse but to engage in precarious work and uphold an increased work burden to meet household needs in times of distress.

Author: Vidya Diwakar

Paper can be downloaded here